One day I will lose my loyalty to any one device. I may own up to ten or twenty devices or more at a time. Some say almost everything will be a device. I will be able to pick and choose which device I use when. Some devices will be better at certain things than others. I will still have my favorite devices. When I am mobile, I will sometimes choose the device that fits into my pocket and sometimes choose my laptop. Sometimes all I will want to bring out with me is an earpiece. When I don’t want to go out at all, I might then rely on my widescreen device from the comfort of my couch. If I forget my device or decide to run free, I will borrow my friend’s to do all the same things, or, embarrassingly, use the public device provided for me at a train station.
In all cases, I will be able to communicate with friends, family and colleagues at any time. Their contact information will float at the ready of any device and when any of them change it, my address book will be instantly updated. My documents and my music will always be available to me. I will be able to capture video or photos at any time. I will be able to publicize any bit of content at any time. I will be able to authorize strangers to access some of my information or content when I see immediate value from doing so. I will be able to give friends access to old or recently discovered files or information with a simple command, or automatically. Likewise, I will be able to access any information I am approved to have at any time. No developer will require me to download an application to create or see data, but sometimes I will be convinced to do so to manipulate it in sophisticated and unique ways. My privacy will be respected as directed and managed by me.
We are years away from this future, but it is a future that is obvious to almost everyone I talk to. Here are some emerging trends to help push us there:
*web applications are proving as robust or more robust than desktop ones
*application developers are recognizing that data should be free and live in the Cloud
*presence is becoming more important
* broadband access to mobile devices is coming fast in all markets
*access to the Internet by mobile devices will outpace desktop access in a few years (as predicted in 2000)
*VOIP is coming to mobile
*seamless switching between various types of wireless networks will happen
In the wake of these trends, and for a few other reasons, the central question at any mobile event I attend continues to be whether or not mobile carriers become dumb pipes for data, and that’s it. It amazes me how this question, elegantly or poorly stated, gets applause and laughter from the audience every time. While many folks in the industry push for open access, most carriers point out that the complexity and disparity of phone types, data speeds, operating systems, browsers and applications make it important for them to play a shepherd’s role in approving and managing application access. I’ve mentioned before that one carrier’s vice president told me that they will bear the brunt of customer service when application problems occur.
In contrast, on a traditional PC, most consumers have sorted out the difference between the manufacturer of the hardware, OS, software or browser. One could argue that the carriers created the “problem” for themselves. If the Internet browser and an operating system were the only software that carriers shipped with the phone, the line between carrier and personal technical responsibility would be obvious. As a result, carriers would have the future opportunity to turn customer support into a profit center instead of a cost center. These are the kinds of roles that carriers may be looking for as they start to open their walled gardens.
Some people argue that the future role of carriers will extend beyond connectivity and support into areas such as billing and identity. While both questions require much deeper analysis than I provide here, I remain skeptical. It is true that premium billing is poised to take off in the US, following on the heels of success in Asia and Europe. Likewise, Google’s innovative use of the phone to register for GMAIL illustrates the use of the phone of some form of identity authentication. In a recent interview on John Furrier’s excellent Podtech series, Reid Hoffman envisioned a future in which voting takes place via the cell phone as a way to illustrate the identity point. I’m more skeptical, however, because I see these as short-term answers to opportunities that will be better solved by the Internet in a device agnostic way. I root for companies like SXIP in the personal identity arena and payment properly belongs to a more consistent system.
At the SD Forum Mobile Value Chain conference, John Pollard, Microsoft’s Senior Director of Mobile Devices Marketing, stated that Microsoft is operating under the assumption that ubiquitous and persistent mobile Internet access is a question of when, not if. Similarly, Timo Bruns, EVP Mobile of Opera, provided a compelling case for why mobile applications of the future should be built on existing and emerging standard web technologies. As the Internet becomes as central to the mobile device as it is now to the desktop, the carriers who don’t respond to these types of pressures may hurt themselves in the long run. I believe that consumers will place much higher value on carriers who have a single focus on persistent and ubiquitous connectivity and support. After all, what do we complain about most today, especially if you live near Sand Hill Road?
People often remark that the US has such a long way to go in mobile and it is true that Europe and Asia are far ahead. This phenomenon had its seeds before 2000 as a result of high fixed line telecom costs in both places, far lower broadband access in the case of Europe and dramatically low desktop/pc Internet access in Asia. The phone wasn’t just more popular choice than the PC; it was the PC. Yet, even those markets are seeing the Internet take the lead over all other elements of the mobile experience. I don’t see the US market needing to catch up as much as I see all markets arriving at the same place a few years from now in different ways: where the Internet dominates mobile devices and how we use them. One day I will lose my loyalty to any one device.
Excellent comments about VoIP coming to mobile. Also, PBX Phone Systems should be used because it offers cost savings on internal phone calls.
http://www.1-satellite-tv-facts.com/Phone-Systems.html
Posted by: PBX Phone Systems | March 14, 2008 at 01:06 PM